The weather in St Francis has been decidedly odd lately. We have had strange temperature changes, far too many southerly winds and very little sense of a normal winter pattern. Meanwhile, the surf has been abysma, water freezing. There have been a few moments, but anyone waiting for a solid run of winter waves has been waiting for quite some time.
Something else interesting has been happening along the beaches around the new groynes in St Francis Bay. Over the past two months, there has been a healthy deposit of sand along sections of the beach. At the same time, we haven’t had any vicious weather or those powerful, long-period winter swells washing through the bay.
Whether the two are connected is a question for people who understand coastal processes better than I do. However, it is another noticeable feature of what has been a very unusual couple of months around here.
There are plenty of theories about what is happening. El Niño – the Godzilla version gets mentioned, along with ocean temperatures and changing weather patterns. Then there are the various pressure systems moving around the Southern Ocean. However, you can stare at charts for hours and still end up looking out the window for the final answer.
The Chokka Forecast
I recently conducted some highly informal meteorological research at a fairly raucous party with a few local chokka fishermen. It was not a controlled environment, and nobody was taking notes. Nevertheless, these guys spend enormous amounts of time at sea. They watch the wind, currents and water temperatures amd understand the ocean.
Their verdict was fairly unanimous: we can expect an early summer. They weren’t presenting a complicated theory or trying to explain global weather systems. They simply reckoned the signs were already there and summer weather patterns are going to arrive ahead of schedule.
That sounded reasonable until the local surfers entered the debate. They have looked at exactly the same ocean and reached the opposite conclusion.
Winter Is Just Late
According to the surfers, winter isn’t finished because it hasn’t really got going yet. Eternal optimists, they reckon that the proper winter swells are still somewhere out there. Eventually, the southerlies will disappear, the swell patterns will improve and St Francis and JBay will get the winter surf it usually expects.
There might be a little wishful thinking involved. After several months of mediocre surf, accepting an early summer means accepting that winter didn’t deliver much. A late winter leaves the door open for September to produce something worthwhile.
So we have two groups calling an early summer and a late winter, respectively.
I’m Going With Summer
I’ve decided to side with the fishermen. This isn’t based on any deep understanding of climatology, El Niño or the Southern Ocean. I’ve simply become accepting to the idea that winter might already be packing up. And it’s east next week.
Besides, I prefer warmth. If the choice is between waiting hopefully for another month of cold fronts or accepting an early summer, summer gets my vote. I would still appreciate a few decent waves, but they don’t necessarily have to arrive with freezing mornings and howling westerlies attached.
Perhaps September will prove the surfers right. For now, though, the warm days, strange winds, quiet surf and growing beaches have me leaning in the other direction.
What do you reckon? Early summer or late winter? It’s like a metaphor of life.
the editor
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